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            信息搜索: 热门:春耕 化肥行情 尿素价格
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            尿素涨回1800,然后还会降?


            农资网 2019年8月21日 19:08 来源:中国化肥网
            关键词:尿素

             众所周知,8月10日起尿素价格回落速度加快,以山东为例,山东主流出厂报价自1850元/吨左右速降至1770元/吨左右,外发成交出厂一度跌至1700-1720元/吨,短短几天后,8月14日起山东尿素价格转为回升,主流出厂报价涨回1800元/吨左右,河北苏皖等地价格也有一定上涨,1800元/吨的价格是今年的底部价格吗?接下来价格能一路走高吗?还会不会有低于前一次的底部价格出现?

              首先,秋季肥的需求仍未完全释放,尿素价格加剧下滑之后出现上扬是合理的表现。秋季肥方面的需求一是复合肥企业考虑到半个月以上的发货周期,基本8月底之前是其较为集中的生产期,再加上台风过后复合肥企业的稍集中生产,近期尿素价格落后复涨是理所应当。不过今年考虑到建国七十周年的大阅兵,考虑到环保压力非常之大(8月19日起中央环保组就蓝天保卫战三年计划针对临沂、危害、泰安进行专项督查),早在6月底复合肥企业就紧锣密鼓的在进行生产,后面对于尿素的接货量应不会特别大,复合肥企业方面的接货应是间歇性的,难以给尿素价格带来持续性的拉动。另外,秋季直接施肥的话是10月初以后,时间尚早,近几年用量缩减,经销商多随用随拿,尤其是惯性认为7月份是全年尿素最低点,所以前面部分经销商已拿货,这也是价格最初回落特别慢的原因之一,接下来经销商直接拿货方面的缺口应有限。此外,经济形势较差,工业电厂方面的接货一直不温不火;胶合板厂方面的接货或将有所好转,具体情况仍有待观察。

              其次,出口方面一直是数量上有支撑,价格上无拉动。7月1日印度中标169万吨尿素,中国国产尿素71万吨的中标数量使得我国尿素价格缓慢回落,近期的加快回落后上涨也有出口的功劳,如山东某大厂低价签了少量新出口订单。不过果真是没能实现国内价格较出口可得价格高50元以上的预期,近期内蒙山西最低出厂价格已经较7月1日印度招标中的价格要低50元左右。虽然印度方面同意将船期自8月16日延期至23日,但是一船6万吨的货,每天要赔偿大概1.2万美金,其中台风闭港天数除外。这给我国带来的利好仍是微乎其微,还有一个利空的消息为印度原本8月底的招标可能延后,当然也不能说是全然的利空,印度不出新的低价的话,我国尿素价格此轮的上涨或许能持续稍长一段时间。

              再次,日产量短期内有所减少,到9月中上旬或许会达到新的峰值。近日检修的企业稍多,如河南某厂一直半负荷,山西少数工厂未满负荷,陕西某厂8月初起检修,内蒙某厂8月15日起检修,内蒙另一工厂8月22日起检修,短期内尿素日产在15.8万吨以下,给尿素价格带来支撑,但似乎无法支撑尿素价格大幅上涨。到了9月中旬,如无环保等干扰的话,这些工厂将纷纷满开。陕西另一工厂9月初将检修,山西多数工厂要到后期9月份视阅兵情况才会减产,所以9月份某个时间段尿素日产量将非常高,届时很可能是2019年全年尿素价格的最低点,要么就是10月份,简而言之,到了11月份天然气保民用等压力之下,尿素日产量才会真正的降下来,价格才有持续上涨的动力。

              最后,厂商心态的博弈是决定着尿素涨价能持续多久的一个重要因素。厂家近期待发多,价格稍高是正常的,经销商若能再等等,9月份再拿货或许不失为一好对策,毕竟方方面面的因素都显示尿素价格难大涨。

              总之,咱操作尿素的业内人士愈加不能参照历史价格,愈加不能惯例思考,需结合经济大环境、新的政策、环保压力去判断。虽然尿素涨回了1800,但是难一路上扬,9月份会有低价出现,只有尿素日产量真正降下来,尿素价格才有适当提前储备的必要。

            (作者:车艳红     责任编辑:YanBO)
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