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            信息搜索: 热门:春耕 化肥行情 尿素价格
            首页 > 化肥市场 > 正文

            尿素涨价靠猜 复合肥涨价靠吼


            农资网 2019年8月21日 19:06 来源:中国化肥网
            关键词:尿素

            转眼间来到了8月下旬,天气渐凉,各地肥市并未随着时间的推移有所转变,僵持气氛仍占主导。继复合肥前期预收订单执行扫尾之后,多数企业新单成交缓慢,尽管计息、保底等政策普遍存在,不过下游始终持观望态度,在企业和经销商双方压力不断增加的同时,市场疲态愈演愈烈。

            目前复合肥价格范围较去年同期相比略有放宽,其主要原因是原料方面利空较多,氮、磷、钾各肥种行情均不尽人意,其中作为影响复合肥价格的重要因素,近期的尿素价格着实有点儿让人摸不清头脑,涨落很“随意”,后市行情大多靠猜,然而,相比尿素,复合肥价格的确较为稳定,但涨价也只能靠吼。

            首先,需求尚有剩余。据了解,北方地区秋季作物多以小麦为主,如河南、河北及山东等地,其中河南为我国小麦产量第一大省,约占全国小麦产量四分之一。今年秋季肥市场延续了早前几个季节的滞后性,自启动以来,并未出现所谓的旺季场景,虽然初期部分企业利用爆品、扩大优惠力度等政策来调动下游打款积极性,但考虑到“淡季涨价、旺季掉价”的尴尬局面,不少经销商选择谨慎对待,即使后期订货利润较低,也不会铤而走险。一旦下游集中在中后阶段备货,那么市场气氛也会有所缓和。

            其次,供应恐将紧张。连续几周以来,复合肥企业整体开工率呈小幅回升趋势,本周大约徘徊在48%左右,值得一提的是,在秋季肥生产旺季期间,开工率未能突破50%,除了需求不足影响之外,政策性因素占比较大。听闻根据“打赢蓝天保卫战”有关要求,中央生态环境保护督察组于8月19日进驻山东泰安、临沂等地,此番环保检查的力度与早前相比或将更强,短期内上述地区的肥料企业生产情况堪忧;另外加上“国庆阅兵”活动时间的临近,部分地区面对的环保压力将空前之大。

            最后,冬储接连进行。秋季市场尚未全部结束,局地冬储就已显露苗头,听闻东北地区少数复合肥企业相继发布冬储价格进行预收。秋、冬季节的肥料市场具有一定连接性,既然秋季复合肥市场至今仿佛仍然看不到回暖迹象,那么中后阶段下游的补货活动,以及各地冬储活动的陆续启动,需求的释放或将推动行情向好发展;另外,现今原料均处弱势,一旦需求连续的话,也将在一定程度上提振原料行情,如此一来,原料与复合肥之间便将互为利好。

            综上,近期原料行情疲软、下游需求不足,直接导致复合肥行情稳中偏弱运行,不过伴随市场的推进,面对逐渐释放的需求,复合肥价格稳定的可能性更大,因此,短期谨慎操作或观望即可。

            (作者:冯弘扬     责任编辑:YanBO)
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