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            信息搜索: 熱門:春耕 化肥行情 尿素價格
            首頁 > 化肥市場 > 正文

            尿素看盤鉀肥談判 一銨怎么辦?


            農資網 2019年8月21日 18:51 來源:中國化肥網
            關鍵詞:尿素

             近階段尿素行情低迷,價格持續走低,市場清淡,關注度下行,但尿素期貨上市這件事卻天天被討論,在肥市還算持續著熱度。到了下半年這個時間段,鉀肥進口大合同談判也被密切關注,雖然鉀肥市場清淡,氯化鉀利空因素占據主導,但大合同談判事宜等關注度卻逐漸走高。那么在這低迷的肥市大背景下,一銨看什么?需求?開工率?庫存?原料?

              近期被關注程度不太高,但也不是沒有,據悉部分大貿易商和復合肥還是有采購意向的,但近期一銨價格暫未到達心理價位,因此大量抄底采購情況暫未到火候。現一銨報價無較大意義,企業多單筆單議,目前湖北大廠55%粉狀一銨承兌出廠在1970-2000元(噸價,下同),個別低端承兌出廠在1950元略低,山東市場55%粉銨承兌入庫在2100元略高,58%粉銨山東承兌入庫在2270-2300元。

              一銨價格走低主要原因必然是需求不理想。二銨仍有降價的空間,據悉華北地區經銷商往年同期早已采購完畢,但今年仍有部分經銷商在觀望。復合肥銷售情況也不見好轉,價格不優惠,下游經銷商多不買賬,據悉采購量較往年縮減至少三分之一。復合肥企業自身情況堪憂,成品肥走貨不理想,運輸也略受阻,開工率長期低位,消耗原料庫存速度緩慢,近階段主消耗一銨庫存,新的采購也是力不從心。據悉近階段僅少數復合肥大廠適量補貨,量多不大。

              一銨整體開工率雖仍在5成附近,但大趨勢是較之前略有回升,目前湖北地區一銨開工率已回升至54.77%,較上月底上升了6.93個百分點,雖然仍有許多企業未增至滿開,但也在今年開工率的較高水平。

              近期由于新單成交較差,部分待發還無流向,發貨略顯困難,因此一銨企業的庫存壓力逐漸增大,即使一銨整體開工仍在5成左右,也難掩一銨的供應壓力,主要是需求清淡是前提。企業的庫存壓力增大也就直接導致了價格方面的妥協。

              一銨原料硫磺行情仍寡淡,港存高位且下降速度緩慢,美元匯率偏高,國際硫磺行情也偏弱,硫磺價格一度下行,雖然到目前為止下行空間已有限,但整體趨勢短期內應無好轉,目前長江港顆粒硫磺價格已低至740元附近,本周普光硫磺萬州港和達州廠區價格也有小幅下行,分別為770元和740元。

              綜上,一銨需要關注的點較多,但主要還是看需求,需求清淡,一銨難有大作為,預計仍有下行可能,據悉貿易商抄底采購的心理價位大概在1900元(湖北55%粉銨出廠價格)。

            (作者:趙紅葉     責任編輯:YanBO)
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