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            信息搜索: 熱門:春耕 化肥行情 尿素價格
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            人民幣貶值,對鉀肥市場有何影響?


            農資網 2019年8月15日 18:45 來源:金聯創
            關鍵詞:市場

            作者:金聯創化肥-王雪村

            8月5日上午,離岸人民幣兌美元匯率跌破“7”整數關口,隨后在岸人民幣也跌破7元,對此央行發文表示,匯率波動屬于常態,有波動價格機制才能發揮資源配置和自動調節作用。

            一般來說,本幣匯率下降,即本幣對外的幣值貶低,能起促進出囗、抑制進囗的作用。若本幣匯率上升,即本幣對外的幣值上升,則有利于進口,不利于出口。

            單從進出口方面來看,此次人民幣貶值將進一步推動中國出口貿易,而對于鉀肥行業具體將有怎樣的影響?我國是一個多氮、少磷、缺鉀的國家,到目前為止氯化鉀依然大部分需要從國外進口,所以從理論上來講人民幣貶值氯化鉀進口成本就會上升,也會對國產鉀肥起到一定的保護作用,對氯化鉀市場可以說是一種利好支撐,同時也一定程度上會促進硫酸鉀的出口。

            去年氯化鉀簽訂的大合同為290美元/噸,假如今年的大合同也是 290 美元/噸。按照目前7.05,去年6.85的匯率來計算的話,那么人民幣貶值后進口氯化鉀的成本將較去年高出約58元/噸,但是今年的港口庫存在300萬噸以上,已遠超去年同期。大合同也一直未傳出消息,從國內和國際市場來看大合同價格下行的可能性較大。在大合同價格下降的情況下,那么對于氯化鉀而言成本方面就沒有明顯的變化了。

            雖然說人民幣貶值將會有利于商品的出口,抑制商品的進口,對于整個化肥行業來說是利好的。但對于目前的鉀肥市場來說市場不確定因素太多,匯率還不夠穩定,大合同何時簽訂還是未知數,甚至有消息稱大合同將會在明年簽訂,所以匯率可能會對鉀肥市場后期走勢可能會產生一定影響,但并不是絕對影響,建議后期還要重點關注港口庫存及大合同消息。

            如欲轉載本文章,請注明內容來源于金聯創

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