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            信息搜索: 热门:春耕 化肥行情 尿素价格
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            尿素这波调价 节奏有点快


            农资网 2019年8月15日 18:42 来源:中国化肥网
            关键词:尿素

             整个上周国内尿素市场沉浸在低迷的状态中,且价格不断下调,截至本周初山东、河北地区部分企业尿素价格落幅达110元/吨,回落的原因无外乎环保及突如其来的“利奇马”台风影响,华东、华南局部区域的作物及复合肥等生产企业受到影响,部分复合肥企业及胶合板企业开工降低,农业需求淡季,尿素企业走货承压。转眼至周三,山东、河北少数尿素价格却“惊现”小幅反弹,如山东地区尿素主流出厂报价在1750-1800元/吨左右,涨价固然是高兴的事儿,但这“变脸”的节奏有点快,多数厂商对尿素的走势仍持悲观预期。

              尿素的小幅反弹并未刺激到下游的敏感神经,反而是觉得吃惊。据从基层批发市场了解到,现市场上农业尿素普遍批发参考价很少,有的也多是喊价,却无人问津;大农资商表示农业清淡至极,工业也只是复合肥厂的少量需求,胶合板厂等开工低,需求少。据中肥网了解统计现江苏局部区域尿素批发价格仅1900元/吨左右,江西局部尿素批发价格仅1930元/吨左右,欲知其他区域详细价格还请加入中国化肥网会员专区,即可知晓。

              尿素企业开工高位维持在6成以上,放在当下阶段供应过剩。现据中国化肥网统计截至目前尿素企业的整体行业开工率在63.1%左右,近期因尿素价格的不断下探,部分企业成本及收益压力均较大,而液氨价位处于偏高水平,因而部分企业的生产重心略向液氨倾斜,不过为了使两者能尽量达到利润最大化,企业并不能过多的转移生产重心;目前市场上关注的重点是环保检查及十一国庆的阅兵的限产情况,就目前尿素企业来看,尿素企业暂未受到影响,且从成本角度考虑,尿素企业若无意外应均尽量保持在相对较高的开工水平。

              需求疲软,价格必然走低。一是农业方面需求结束,大农资公司及基层中小农资商的销售量不大,市场上呈现有价无市的状态,部分农资商有库存不说,价格未到心理预期也不谈淡储,按需采购甚至是观望无采购;二是工业复合肥企业的需求是尿素市场的最大支撑,本该寄希望于此,但在环保检查之下,一些复合肥企业被迫限产或停产待工,如川渝地区的部分中小复合肥企业正因环保缘故而停车检修,又受台风的影响,山东及江苏等地部分复合肥企业生产负荷降低,尿素的需求量明显减少;三是氯化铵行情疲软,企业库存压力明显,走货承压,干铵价格不断暗降,幅度在10-40元/吨左右,复合肥企业本身收款不佳,生产积极性不高,成本压力明显,因而部分企业会欣然选择氯化铵代替尿素使用;最后是印度截标日期8月16日,若截标后少了集港的支撑,那高位开工下的尿素产量还得靠国内市场消化,印度是否还有招标并不确定,利好或利空还需随时关注。

              综合来看,尿素的这波落后回调的操作,实则缺乏十足的利好支撑,也缺乏筑底的条件,因而涨价显得“名不副实”,预计近期尿素价格盘整为主,突然的小涨也难以长久维系,若尿素企业开工无明显降低的话,高端报价实际还将面临回落风险。

            (作者:谭俊英     责任编辑:YanBO)
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