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            信息搜索: 热门:春耕 化肥行情 尿素价格
            首页 > 尿素市场 > 正文

            上市后首个涨停板!尿素这个涨停真实吗?


            农资网 2019年8月15日 18:39 来源:期货日报
            关键词:尿素

            通过走势可以看出,昨日尿素期货主力合约UR2001呈现单边上涨之势,经过多次拉涨,于临近尾盘时涨停,并以涨停价1767元/吨收盘,涨幅达4.00%。昨日UR2001合约共成交64.61万手,成交额225.2亿元,较上一交易日有所放大,增仓3.65万手,持仓量达13.04万手,交投依旧活跃,做多情绪较为高涨。
              不过,市场人士普遍表示,目前尿素现货基本面并无明显改善,现阶段正处于尿素需求淡季,且尿素现货价格持续下调,整体现货市场在淡季中仍较为疲软。昨日的涨停可能与前期超跌以及“二青会”举办限产炒作、印标大面积滞期因此下游出现集中补货等多重因素有关。此外,在上市初期,尿素期货受资金运行影响较大。
              上市第三日,尿素主力合约多次拉涨封至涨停板
              经过上市首日跌停行情,昨日尿素期货主力合约UR2001日内呈现出单边上涨之势,截至收盘以涨停价1767元/吨收盘,涨幅达4.00%。这是尿素期货上市后首次出现涨停。



              据统计,昨日UR2001合约共成交64.61万手,成交额为225.2亿元,较上一交易日有所放大,做多情绪高涨。持仓量13.04万手,增仓3.65万手,交投依旧十分活跃。
              不过,与火热的期货盘面不同,目前尿素现货市场在淡季中仍较为疲软,基本面并无明显改善。“基本面来看的话,尿素现货市场整体偏弱,没有新增利好刺激。昨日山东华鲁恒升中小颗粒尿素下调了30元/吨至1790元/吨,整体现货市场在淡季中仍较为疲软。”方正中期期货分析师翟启迪据记者说。
              据卓创资讯显示,昨日河南尿素市场弱势延续,成交重心仍有小幅下移。场内小颗粒主流出厂价格为1710?1750元/吨。山东地区尿素市场同样疲软下滑,成交氛围清淡,中小颗粒主流出厂价格为1720?1800元/吨,临沂菏泽市场成交1780?1800元/吨。且目前厂家以发前期订单为主,因受连续阴雨天气影响,需求减量,发运不畅,经销商接货意愿不强,预计短期行情将延续弱势。
              多重因素推高期价
              “根据目前的价格来看,目前期货盘面有升水迹象。”卓创资讯分析师汤菲菲说,在尿素期货上市初期,期货价格的现货属性会远强于金融属性,从上市定价看就是交割区域内的“厂商指导价”。开盘后的跳空其实就为投机资金指明了方向,在产业资金尚未进入时,期货价格是不会大幅度升贴水于现货的,所以急挫之后的迅速上涨是修正期价的现货属性。等运行一段时间参与度广泛了,期货的升贴水才有发展空间,期货价格也才会更好地发挥价格发现的作用。
              在一德期货分析师史开放看来,上市前两天的超跌让期现货价差扩大较多,昨日的涨停则是因为期货给了较好的入场做多点位,多头氛围较浓。“尿素期货上市第一天跌停,第二天开盘又在临近跌停的位置,期货现货价差打开太大,这样一来,期货给了更低的价位,买期货的话时间价值大。一般来说,”金九银十“市场对尿素是有旺季需求的,所以在低价位出现时有现货贸易企业开始进场做多。”史开放说。
              此外,因为“二青会”正在山西省举办的原因,尿素现货厂家有有出现降负荷的现象,给了多头炒作的空间。除上述原因之外据记者还了解到,由于港口接货能力及恶劣天气影响,印标项目可能出现了大面积的滞期,出口商正与印方争取延期交货,这导致下游出现集中补库的动作,可能也是推高期货盘面价格的原因之一。
              后期盘面价格仍将承压
              “昨日尿素期货UR2001合约涨停至1767元/吨。与期货相反,昨日现货价格仍然弱势,主流现货下探至1700?1720元/吨附近。我认为前期尿素期货跌停,并大幅贴水现货是提前抢跑了现货悲观预期。从昨日盘面价格来看,期货大幅反弹是回归理性。目前期货开始升水现货40?60元/吨附近,后期现货抛盘压力将增加。”国泰君安期货分析师叶伟乐表示,因此,在短期现货仍然弱势,没有新的利好出现之前,预计期货反弹高度或将有限。



              市场人士普遍认为,在目前现货市场低迷的情况之下,真正的行情启动尚需时间。“从近三年来看,8月份基本都是年度的低点,所以在现在现货需求偏弱的情况下,行情真正启动尚需时间。期货盘面的基准定价是安徽、山东、河北、河南几个区域的综合博弈。各个区域有其自身的价差,期货的跌势,使得盘面贴水于各地区域的价格,那么很多产业人士认为期货超跌,开始做买单,这是期货上市初期各参与方综合预期的结果,期货还是要围绕现货涨跌。”史开放说,不过,因为前期超跌的缘故,产业企业进场较为谨慎。
              “据我了解的情况,目前尿素期货市场基本上以机构客户为主,产业客户相对来讲仍处于试水阶段,基本上是以这个轻仓为主。”汤菲菲说,尿素行业相对来讲比较传统,产业对期货实际上认识程度不够,多数厂家受自身国企背景限制,在期货上的操作较为谨慎。
              与厂家相比,贸易商的参与热情较高。尿素的贸易利润空间较薄,贸易商参与期货市场可以为自身的库存进行套期保值,规避价格下跌的风险。但是因为现阶段现货市场处于需求淡季,贸易商囤货的意愿并不强。“目前这个阶段贸易商库存并不高,因为现在处于需求淡季,下游对于价格接受度较低,因此贸易商普遍不愿意囤货。再加上下游的板材开工率较低、复合肥整体盈利情况较差,贸易囤货非常谨慎。”汤菲菲说。
              “从基本面来看,尿素短期压力犹存。”翟启迪对记者说,如果是反弹行情,还需要等印标项目以及国内秋季农需时节到来释放利好。目前,印度国内尿素销售情况较好,7月份库存为55万吨,去年同期是81.5万吨,外媒推断后面印度可能会在8月底或9月份再次招标。到时候看印标能不能和国内秋季农需配合带来一轮上涨行情。

            (作者:邬梦雯     责任编辑:YanBO)
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