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            廣東省2019年下半年全省農作物病蟲發生趨勢預測


            農資網 2019年8月12日 14:10 來源:廣東省農業有害生物預警防控中心

              根據全省下半年農作物病蟲害發生趨勢會商會專家會商,結合病蟲源基數、作物布局、栽培管理和氣候特點等因素綜合分析,預測下半年全省農作物病蟲害發生趨勢總體偏重發生。發生特點:蟲害重于病害,發生分布不平衡,稻飛虱、稻紋枯病、黃曲條跳甲、小菜蛾、瓜薊馬、瓜實蠅、桔小實蠅、柑桔紅蜘蛛、草地貪夜蛾和農區害鼠等有害生物發生較突出。

              一、發生趨勢

              (一)水稻病蟲  偏重發生。發生面積4950萬畝次。

              稻飛虱:偏重發生。發生面積1500萬畝次。

              稻縱卷葉螟:中等、局部偏重發生。發生面積1000萬畝次。

              鉆蛀性螟蟲:偏輕、局部中等發生。粵北和粵東稻區以二化螟為主,粵西以三化螟和大螟為主,珠三角稻區以二化螟和大螟為主。發生面積380萬畝次。

              稻瘟病:感病品種、歷史病區局部中等發生。發生面積250萬畝次。

              紋枯病:偏重發生。發生面積1200萬畝次。

              細菌性條斑病:中等、局部偏重發生。發生面積275萬畝次。

              白葉枯病:偏輕發生,西南和東南沿海稻區局部中等發生。發生面積125萬畝次。

              南方水稻黑條矮縮病:偏輕、局部中等發生,西南和北部稻區局部中等發生。發生面積80萬畝次。

              此外,跗線螨、稻稈潛蠅、葉蟬、稻曲病、橙葉病等在局部地區也有不同程度發生。

              (二)蔬菜病蟲  偏重發生。發生面積4800萬畝次。

              黃曲條跳甲:偏重發生,珠江三角洲和粵北局部重發生。發生面積615萬畝次。

              小菜蛾:偏重發生,珠江三角洲局部重發生。發生面積560萬畝次。

              瓜薊馬:偏重、局部重發生,茄果類作物重發生。發生面積310萬畝次。

              瓜實蠅:偏重發生。發生面積235萬畝次。

              斜紋夜蛾、煙粉虱、斑潛蠅、豆莢螟、疫病:中等、局部偏重發生。

              甜菜夜蛾、菜青蟲、白粉病、病毒病、炭疽病、軟腐病、霜霉病、枯萎病:中等發生。

              (三)果樹病蟲  中等、偏重發生。發生面積2650萬畝次。

              桔小實蠅:偏重發生。發生面積530萬畝次。

              柑桔紅蜘蛛:偏重發生。發生面積400萬畝次。

              柑桔銹蜘蛛:中等、偏重發生。發生面積280萬畝次。

              柑桔潛葉蛾:中等、局部偏重發生。

              柑桔木虱、柑桔炭疽病、柑桔潰瘍病、香蕉葉斑病:中等發生。

              (四)其他有害生物 

              草地貪夜蛾:偏重發生。發生面積10萬畝。

              農區害鼠:偏重發生。發生面積1800萬畝次。

              玉米螟、玉米大小斑病、茶小綠葉蟬、甘蔗螟蟲、福壽螺:中等、局部偏重發生。

              粘蟲、玉米蚜蟲、玉米銹病、茶尺蠖、黑刺粉虱、蔗金龜:中等發生。

              二、預測依據

              (一)病蟲源基數較高。

              早稻病蟲發生范圍廣,后期稻飛虱、紋枯病、穗頸瘟等病蟲發生較重,殘留病蟲基數大;水稻遷飛性害蟲回遷我省,與本地蟲源重疊累積,加重為害。上半年果樹病蟲和蔬菜病蟲害普遍發生,殘存基數較高,草地貪夜蛾累積了較大的蟲源,下半年有可能持續遷入或回遷我省,增大蟲源基數。

              (二)氣候條件對病蟲害發生有利。

              據省氣候中心預測:8-9月我省大部分地區降水偏少1-2成,期間3個熱帶氣旋登陸或嚴重影響我省。寒露風屬于偏輕年景。臺風及其環流天氣利于遷飛性害蟲遷入、集中降落和繁殖為害,也利于紋枯病、白葉枯病等病害的滋生和蔓延。

              (三)裁培及其他因子利于病蟲害發生。

              水稻種植品種多,品種抗性水平參差不齊,晚稻生長茂盛,田間通風透光性差,易形成適溫高濕的田間小氣候,利于水稻遷飛性害蟲的發生為害和稻瘟病、白葉枯病和紋枯病等病害的擴展蔓延。

              蔬菜復種指數高,種類多,植期不一,種植分散和連續種植并存,為病蟲害提供寄主條件和輾轉為害場所,利于病蟲擴散蔓延。

              果園管理水平不一,管理不好或失管園病蟲害發生較重,果樹樹勢、梢期、熟期不一致,利于病蟲發生為害。

              玉米種植管理水平不一,種植分散,“插花”種植普遍,生育期不一,利于草地貪夜蛾和玉米螟等病蟲害輾轉為害。

              害鼠活動范圍廣,取食作物多,防治難度大,利于農區害鼠的發生為害。

              三、防治意見

              各地植保部門應加強田間調查,及時發布病蟲預報預警,科學指導防控。一要突出抓好稻飛虱、稻紋枯病、黃曲條跳甲、小菜蛾、瓜薊馬、瓜實蠅、桔小實蠅、柑桔紅蜘蛛、草地貪夜蛾和農區害鼠等重大病蟲鼠害防控,抓住防治關鍵時期,落實科學防控措施,確保農業生產安全。二要及時開展應急防控。完善應急防控指揮調度和聯防聯控制度,一旦突發遷飛性害蟲、流行性病害和蝗蟲、農區害鼠等有害生物,及時組織群眾、防治組織開展應急防控,確保突發病蟲不大面積成災。三要推進病蟲綠色防控和專業化統防統治融合。引導專業化統防統治組織開展水稻、果樹等病蟲專業化統防統治,推廣應用“燈誘、性誘、色誘、食誘”以及稻田養鴨、人工釋放天敵等綠色防控技術。四要推廣應用高效低風險農藥,選用先進植保器械施藥,提高農藥利用率,實現農藥減量控害。

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