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            湖南省2019年下半年主要農作物病蟲發生趨勢預測


            農資網 2019年8月12日 14:05 來源:湖南省植保植檢站

            根據全省各地上半年主要農作物病蟲發生實況,結合栽培、氣象和歷年資料等綜合因素考慮,預計:全省中稻中后期和晚稻病蟲害總體偏重發生,其中二化螟、稻飛虱、紋枯病偏重發生;稻縱卷葉螟、稻瘟病中等發生,局部發生嚴重;稻曲病、南方水稻黑條矮縮病偏輕發生。玉米病蟲偏輕發生,其中玉米螟中等發生。棉花病蟲偏輕發生。柑橘病蟲中等發生,其中柑橘紅蜘蛛、銹壁虱偏重發生。

            一、水稻病蟲發生預測

            (一)發生趨勢預測

            1. 螟蟲

            二化螟偏重發生,局部大發生;發生面積2800萬畝次。

            大螟輕發生,發生面積130萬畝次。

            2. 稻飛虱

            偏重發生,發生面積4600萬畝次。

            3. 稻縱卷葉螟

            中等發生,湘西南、湘中和湘東局部偏重發生。發生面積3400萬畝次。

            4. 紋枯病

            偏重發生;發生面積2700萬畝。

            5. 稻瘟病

            中等發生,局部偏重發生。發生面積230萬畝次。

            6. 稻曲病

            偏輕發生。發生面積230萬畝,若水稻感病品種破口抽穗前5~7天遇適溫陰雨天氣,可能出現大流行。

            7.南方水稻黑條矮縮病

            偏輕發生,發生面積70萬畝。

            (二)預測依據

            1. 病蟲基數。據6月底調查全省二化螟各市州畝平蟲量一般為354~3778頭,全省早稻畝加平1273頭,比去年增加45.7%;中稻畝加平1452頭,比去年增加40.2%;具備偏重至大發生蟲源量。當前中稻田間“兩遷”害蟲及卵量較大;早稻紋枯病發生重,大量菌核殘落稻田,菌源充足;稻瘟病菌源廣泛存在。

            2. 栽培因素。部分地區水稻插花種植且栽插期拉長,導致生育期不齊,橋梁田多而雜,既豐富了害蟲食源,又為其輾轉為害提供了條件。中晚稻優質稻種植面積繼續增加,大多數品種較傳統品種抗性偏弱;長株潭局部地區推廣種植應急性鎘低積累品種、中稻-再生稻主推品種中不少抗瘟性差,致使稻瘟病流行風險增加。此外,一些高產栽培措施和部分農戶偏施、遲施N肥等種植習慣,使水稻田間生長量大、田間郁蔽度大,易形成適溫高濕的田間小氣候,有利于害蟲的生長增殖及病害的發生流行。

            3. 氣象因素。據氣象部門預測,7月平均氣溫湘北接近常年,湘南偏高;總雨量湘中以北大部較常年偏多,總雨日數為12~14天。7月下旬至8月預計受臺風影響,湘南降水增多,利于“兩遷”害蟲的遷入,雨季與中稻及部分晚稻孕穗至破口抽穗關鍵期相吻合,可能造成晚稻穗期病害大面積發生。雨季結束后將出現晴熱高溫天氣,水稻生育后期禾苗濃密,田間小氣候適宜,對稻飛虱發生為害有利,極易出現暴發危害。

            4. 其它因素。全省加強中晚稻藥劑拌種工作,有些縣市全年中晚稻拌種比例超過95%,一定程度上抑制了南方水稻黑條矮縮病的發生幾率;針對近年二化螟難防治的問題,全省分區分級施治,從越冬代開始即采取多種形式進行防控,壓低二化螟基數,降低了其后期爆發成災的風險。

            二、玉米病蟲發生預測

            (一)發生趨勢預測

            二代玉米螟中等發生,發生面積100萬畝。

            玉米蚜蟲偏輕發生,發生面積110萬畝次。

            玉米紋枯病偏輕發生,湘西地區中等發生。發生面積40萬畝。

            玉米大小斑病偏輕發生,發生面35萬畝。

            草地貪夜蛾在夏秋玉米、高粱等作物上將普遍發生,預計玉米上發生15萬畝,高粱和甘蔗上發生2萬畝。

            (二) 預測依據

            1.病蟲基數。7月初調查,各縣市一代玉米螟每百桿殘存活蟲數一般為1.5~44頭,全省平均百桿殘存活蟲數11.7頭,加權平均百株有效卵塊數2.8塊,草地貪夜蛾1.2~35.5頭,高的達到105頭,蟲源充足,有效蟲源田面積較大。

            2.耕作栽培因素。我省玉米種植面積今年略有增加,種植區域廣,播種期、生育期不一,“插花”種植現象普遍,橋梁地塊多,有利于玉米螟、草地貪夜蛾等害蟲的輾轉為害;山丘區連作現象普遍,有利于病害發生與流行。

            3.氣象條件。據氣象部門預測,8~9月平均氣溫全省略偏高,7~8降雨偏多,雨水集中,有利于玉米病害的發生流行。

            三、棉花病蟲發生預測

            (一) 發生趨勢預測

            棉鈴蟲輕發生(1級),發生面積88萬畝次。預計二代成蟲盛期為7月9~26日,三代卵盛期為7月中下旬。

            棉盲蝽偏輕發生(2級),發生面積70萬畝次。

            棉蚜輕發生(1級),發生面積30萬畝次。

            棉葉螨偏輕發生(2級),發生面積37萬畝次。

            甜菜夜蛾偏輕發生(2級),發生面積16萬畝次。

            斜紋夜蛾偏輕發生(2級),發生面積14萬畝次。

            棉花鈴期病害偏輕發生(2級),發生面積30萬畝。

            棉花枯黃萎病輕發生(1級),發生面積20萬畝。

            棉紅鈴蟲偏輕發生(2級),發生面積22萬畝次。

            (二) 預測依據

            1.蟲源基數。田間二代棉鈴蟲百株累計卵量及殘蟲量基本未查見。棉葉螨前期田間蟲量低于去年。棉盲蝽單燈累計蟲量高于去年。

            2.耕作和栽培制度。抗蟲棉種植占比高,不利于棉鈴蟲的發生;農戶防治紅鈴蟲意識不強,局部地區有發生加重態勢。棉花價格持續低迷,農戶投入減少,生產管理差,部分棉田因缺鉀早衰嚴重,有利于棉葉螨和棉盲蝽的發生。

            3.氣象條件。7~8月份全省氣溫偏高,前期時晴時雨天氣利于伏蚜發生,后期高溫少雨天氣有利于棉葉螨、甜菜夜蛾、斜紋夜蛾的發生。

            四、柑橘病蟲發生預測

            (一) 發生趨勢預測

            紅蜘蛛:偏重發生,預計發生面積410萬畝次。

            銹壁虱:偏重發生,預計發生面積280萬畝次。

            潛葉蛾:中等發生,預計發生面積190萬畝次。

            矢尖蚧:中等發生,預計發生面積200萬畝次。

            桔  蚜:偏輕發生,預計發生面積150萬畝次。

            粉虱(黑刺粉虱):中等發生,預計發生面積200萬畝次。

            炭疽病:中等發生,預計發生面積240萬畝。

            砂皮病:中等發生,預計發生面積260萬畝。

            (二) 預測依據

            1.病蟲基數。6月下旬調查:紅蜘蛛百葉蟲量一般6.7~207頭;銹壁虱每視野一般有蟲0.1~0.7頭;砂皮病一般病果率5.2~27.3%;炭疽病平均病葉率5.5%;具備中等以上發生病蟲基數。

            2.氣象條件。8~9高溫干旱雖對病害流行不利,但有利于銹螨、潛葉蛾的發生危害;10~11月的溫濕條件有利于柑橘紅蜘蛛的發生。

            3.栽培管理。散戶桔園管理粗放,樹勢差,抗性降低。部分地區存在偏施氮肥,草甘膦、氮磷鉀水溶性葉面肥等使用不當等栽培管理措施,導致樹勢較弱。

            ( 責任編輯:YanBO)
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