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            2019年下半年玉米病虫害发生趋势预报


            农资网 2019年8月5日 09:29 【


            7月22-24日,全国农技中心在甘肃省兰州市召开了2019全国玉米病虫害发生趋势会商会。来自全国玉米生产省(区、市)的测报技术人员和科研教学单位相关专家,在总结玉米上半年病虫害发生情况的基础上,根据目前病虫发生基数、玉米种植方式及作物布局,结合未来气候因素综合分析,预计今年下半年玉米病虫害发生程度将明显重于上年和常年,草地贪夜蛾、三代粘虫、二代草地螟、棉铃虫等迁飞性害虫对玉米生产威胁大,玉米螟、大斑病、褐斑病发生普遍;为害盛期北方大部在7月下旬至8月底,南方玉米种植区可持续到10月底。

            一、上半年发生概况

            上半年玉米病虫害发生程度总体重于上年,发生面积3.27亿亩次,虫害发生3.1亿亩次,病害发生1700万亩次。其中,二代粘虫、草地贪夜蛾、一代草地螟等迁飞性害虫为害严重,地下害虫、一代玉米螟发生普遍,二代棉铃虫、二点委夜蛾和蓟马在黄淮海部分地区上升为害。

            草地贪夜蛾在21个省份发生,实查发生面积1188万亩,呈现发生范围广、扩展速度快、为害程度重的特点,西南、华南等南方部分地区虫口密度大、被害株率高。二代粘虫发生5000万亩,明显重于2014-2018年,西南、西北、东北和华北局部存在重发区域或地块。草地螟进入新的发生周期,一代在内蒙古及其周边的山西、河北、陕西局部偏重发生,发生面积为320万亩。二点委夜蛾发生1500万亩,天津、山西、河北、山东局部地区发生重于上年。地下害虫发生面积8800万亩,东北、华北、西北部分地区发生普遍,局部程度较重。玉米螟在东北、华北、黄淮、西南等大部发生程度接近常年,发生面积为4500万亩。二代棉铃虫、蓟马在黄淮海大部发生较为突出,发生面积为3000万亩。

            纹枯病、粗缩病前期发生相对较重,发生面积超过300万亩,大斑病、小斑病、锈病在各玉米产区陆续见病,病害总体程度较轻。

            二、下半年发生趋势

            预计下半年全国玉米病虫害发生8.6亿亩次,虫害5.8亿亩次,病害2.8亿亩次。

            迁飞性害虫对下半年玉米生产威胁最大,其中,草地贪夜蛾为害重点区域为西南、华南、江南夏秋玉米区,以云南和广西等本地虫源多代繁殖和境外虫源持续侵入区发生最重;黄淮海、西北等地发生区域会继续扩大,总体为点片或零星发生,全国发生面积为2000万亩。三代粘虫中等发生,东北、华北、西南局部会出现高密度集中为害区域,发生面积为3500万亩。二代草地螟在内蒙古及其周边地区偏重发生可能性大,发生面积为600万亩。三、四代棉铃虫在黄淮海地区可达偏重程度,其他地区中等发生,发生面积为6000万亩。玉米螟在东北、华北、黄淮、西北大部地区中等发生,各代累计发生面积为2.6亿亩次。蚜虫在东北、华北、西北大部中等发生,发生面积为7500万亩。叶螨、双斑萤叶甲在西北、华北等部分地区中等发生,分别发生3000万亩。土蝗在北方部分干旱地区会有一定为害,发生1000万亩。

            大斑病在东北大部、华北北部、西北东部,小斑病在黄淮南部、西南局部,褐斑病在黄淮海,弯孢叶斑病在黄淮及东北南部发生,程度接近常年。

             三、预报依据

            (一)迁飞性害虫虫源范围广、部分地区基数高

            草地贪夜蛾在全国21个省份的1246个县发生,经全力防控,总体虫口数量明显降低,但由于害虫繁殖能力强、高龄幼虫防治难度大,仍存在一定基数,且境外虫源持续迁入,增大了种群数量。据监测,江南和长江中下游性诱出现蛾量高峰,3台性诱捕器累计诱蛾量,江西信丰6月21日-23日53头,湖南江华7月5日-7日561头,湖北石首7月5日-11日72头。6月下旬以来,云南、广西等地高空测报灯出现明显蛾峰,云南江城6月26日至7月13日累计诱蛾2543头,7月3日、7月5日分别诱到311头、273头,广西宜州6月23日至7月13日累计诱蛾822头,6月26日、7月5日分别为132头和97头,说明境外虫源仍持续迁入。

            二代粘虫在西南、西北、东北和华北等地发生面积大,西南等局部虫量较高。近期各地高空测报灯二代粘虫成虫量明显偏高,广西宜州常年不见虫的7月份诱到高数量种群,7月2日-15日7379头,7月7日和10日达3000头;滦县7月17日-25日诱蛾2320头,接近2014-2018年均值;黑龙江双城7月18日-24日272头,是上年同期的2倍;山东长岛7月5日-23日933头,为2014-2018年同期均值的3倍。

            一代草地螟在内蒙古兴安盟、呼和浩特、乌兰察布等11个盟市40多个旗县发生,农田周边草场和林场残留基数高,近期呼伦贝尔、兴安盟部分县出现一代成虫高峰,乌兰浩特7月23日高空测报灯诱蛾达2万多头,雌蛾卵巢发育2-3级比例达90%。山西大同7月23日田间百步惊蛾150头,河北康保7月20日-21日灯下诱蛾450头。呼伦贝尔部分地区始见二代幼虫,农田幼虫数量2-3头/m2。

            一代玉米螟平均百株虫量,黑龙江为20头,贵州35头,云南30头,江苏12头,其他省份不足10头,基数低于常年。

            (二)玉米生育期和种植方式适宜病虫发生

            北方玉米连片种植,后期生长高大、田间郁闭,有利于病虫发生,部分管理粗放、杂草多的地块尤其利于粘虫和草地螟集中产卵为害。南方玉米交错种植,夏秋季玉米生育期不一,适于草地贪夜蛾的取食为害,致使程度逐代加重。另外,目前黄淮海、西北等地玉米多处于喇叭口期,处于草地贪夜蛾为害的适宜生育期。

            (三)未来气象条件对大部地区玉米病虫发生有利

            据国家气候中心预测,东北南部、华北东部、黄淮东北部8月份降水偏多2-5成,利于粘虫、草地螟和病害的发生。华北、黄淮、江淮大部8-9月份气温较常年偏高1-2℃,降水正常或偏少,有利于棉铃虫、蚜虫为害。7月底至8月上旬,西北太平洋上将有1-2个热带气旋发展并生成,有利于南方锈病在黄淮海扩散流行。南方夏秋季气候条件对草地贪夜蛾发生无明显不利影响。

             

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